Significant Increase of the Global Population Exposure to Increased Precipitation Extremes in the Future

Precipitation extremes and associated hazards often cause agricultural losses infrastructure damage even exert negative impacts on human health. It is thus crucial to assess future changes in precipitation exposure under warming scenarios improve the mitigation of climate change. On basis Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 simulations, we find that occurring probabilities exceed 99th percentile threshold are projected increase over global lands coming century, especially no-mitigation scenario SSP5-8.5. Under this scenario, by end occurrences aggregations expected approximately 1.8 times. Increases also if early conducted via SSP1-2.6. Accordingly, aggregate would at least 50% Changes will a substantial influence population exposure, which contribution be up 46% SSP5-8.5 century. The maximum centers concentrated East Asia, South Mediterranean basin, eastern North America, as current state. However, rapid some parts Africa plays larger role than change significantly increases these regions. As result, regions become other high-exposure future. Climate should key policy response reduce most